Analisis Keselamatan PLTN Berbasis Probabilitas Fuzzy

Authors

Julwan Hendry Purba
Badan Riset dan Inovasi Nasional
DOI: https://doi.org/10.55981/brin.784

Keywords:

Analisis keselamatan probabilistik, Analisis pohon kegagalan, Analisis kritikalitas, Analisis pohon kejadian, Probabilitas fuzzy, Intelligence probabilistic safety assessment, Pembangkit listrik tenaga nuklir, PLTN

Synopsis

Teknologi PLTN dan teknologi sistem keselamatannya senantiasa berkembang seiring dengan perkembangan ilmu pengetahuan dan teknologi. Meskipun keandalan sistem keselamatan PLTN semakin baik, menihilkan kecelakaan dan risiko tetap tidak mungkin. Oleh karena itu, yang menjadi fokus peningkatan keandalan sistem keselamatan PLTN adalah memperkecil probabilitas kecelakaan dan menurunkan konsekuensi kecelakaan hingga tingkat risiko yang dapat diterima.

Untuk dapat memperkirakan besarnya peluang terjadinya kecelakaan dan tingkat risiko dari pengoperasian PLTN maka perlu dilakukan analisis keselamatan probabilistik. Analisis keselamatan probabilistik konvensional memerlukan ketersediaan data kegagalan komponen. Tentunya PLTN yang masih dalam tahap disain atau yang belum pernah beroperasi tidak akan memiliki data kegagalan yang diperlukan. Kondisi ini menyebabkan penggunaan data generik menjadi tak terhindarkan. Hasil analisis dengan menggunakan data generik ini tentu saja tidak akan menggambarkan kondisi nyata dari sistem yang sedang dievaluasi, sehingga kurang tepat dijadikan sebagai bahan pertimbangan untuk meningkatkan keandalan sistem keselamatan.

Oleh karena itu dikembangkanlah metode analisis keselamatan PLTN berbasis probabilitas fuzzy untuk mengevaluasi kinerja sistem keselamatan PLTN ketika data kegagalan komponen tidak tersedia. Metode baru ini memanfaatkan keilmuan, pengetahuan dan pengalaman yang dimiliki oleh pakar yang terlibat dalam mendisain dan mengembangkan reaktor tersebut. Metode analisis keselamatan probabilistik berbasis probabilitas fuzzy ini memiliki tiga fitur analisis yaitu analisis pohon kegagalan berbasis probabilitas fuzzy, analisis kritikalitas berbasis probabilitas fuzzy, dan analisis pohon kejadian berbasis probabilitas fuzzy. Untuk memudahkan pengguna, metode yang dikembangkan ini juga dilengkapi dengan perangkat lunak Intelligent Probabilistic Safety Assessment (IntelPSA).

Metode analisis ini tentu saja akan memberikan kontribusi saintifik pada pengembangan teknologi keselamatan PLTN. Kontribusi saintifik yang pertama adalah FPPSA dapat menjadi komplemen untuk analisis keselamatan probabilistik konvensional ketika PLTN yang akan dievaluasi tidak memiliki data kegagalan komponen. Kontribusi saintifik yang kedua adalah konsep berpikir yang ditanamkan pada metode baru ini dapat menjadi acuan bagi para peneliti dalam mengembangkan metode analisis baru dengan penggunaan data kualitatif melalui justifikasi pakar berdasarkan keilmuan, pengetahuan dan pengalaman yang dimiliki ketika data kuantitatif tidak tersedia. Untuk aplikasi praktis, para pembuat kebijakan terkait dengan pembangunan dan pengoperasian PLTN pertama di Indonesia dapat mempertimbangkan untuk menggunakan perangkat lunak IntelPSA sebagai alat bantu untuk mengevaluasi keandalan sistem keselamatan PLTN yang dipilih sehingga pakar yang memahami teknologi dan sistem kerja dari reaktor nuklir yang akan dibangun dapat melakukan justifikasi secara kualitatif.

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Author Biography

Julwan Hendry Purba, Badan Riset dan Inovasi Nasional

Menamatkan Sekolah Dasar Negeri 124399 Pematang ­Siantar­ tahun 1983, Sekolah Menengah Pertama Negeri 3 Medan tahun 1986, dan Sekolah Menengah Atas Negeri 5 Medan tahun 1989. Memperoleh gelar sarjana teknik nuklir dari Universitas Gadjah Mada tahun 1995, memperoleh gelar master of applied information technology dari Monash University, Melbourne, Australia tahun 2003, dan gelar doktor bidang aplikasi teknik informatika pada analisis keselamatan reaktor dari University of Technology Sydney, Sydney, Australia tahun 2013.
Mengikuti beberapa pelatihan yang terkait dengan bidang kompetensinya, antara lain Interregional Training Course on Regulatory Aspects and Safety Documentation of Research Reactors di ANL, Amerika Serikat dan AECL, Kanada (tahun 1998); International Training Course on Nuclear Safety di JAEA, Jepang (tahun 2006); National Training Course on ­Probabilistic Safety Assessment di Pusdiklat-BATAN (tahun 2007); dan ­Instructor Training Course on Reactor Engineering I, II, and III di JAEA, Jepang tahun 2014.
Jabatan fungsional peneliti diawali sebagai Peneliti Muda Gol. III/d tahun 2014, Peneliti Madya Gol. IV/a tahun 2016, Peneliti Ahli Madya Gol. IV/b tahun 2018, Peneliti Ahli Madya Gol. IV/c tahun 2019 dan memperoleh jabatan Peneliti Ahli Utama Gol. IV/d bidang Teknologi Keselamatan Reaktor tahun 2021.
Menghasilkan 58 karya tulis ilmiah (KTI), baik yang ditulis sendiri maupun bersama penulis lain dalam bentuk buku, bagian buku, jurnal, dan prosiding, baik pada tingkat nasional maupun internasional. Sebanyak 35 KTI ditulis dalam bahasa Inggris.
Ikut serta dalam pembinaan kader ilmiah, yaitu sebagai pengajar di pendidikan dan pelatihan yang diselenggarakan oleh BATAN dan Bapeten; pengajar, pembimbing dan penguji skripsi (S-1) di Universitas Pembangunan Nasional (UPN) Veteran Jakarta dan Universitas Tarumanagara Jakarta; serta pembimbing dan penguji tesis (S-2) di Chulalongkorn University, Thailand dan di Universitas Indonesia.
Aktif dalam kegiatan ilmiah, antara lain sebagai ketua editor di Jurnal Atom Indonesia dan Jurnal Teknologi Reaktor Nuklir Tri Dasa Mega. Menjadi mitra bestari di Jurnal Internasional Annals of Nuclear Energy, Reliability Engineering and System Safety, dan Quality and Reliability Engineering International. Menjadi editor/mitra bestari di International Conference on Nuclear Energy Technologies and Sciences.
Aktif dalam organisasi profesi ilmiah, yaitu sebagai Asesor Akreditasi Jurnal Nasional (ARJUNA) (2018–2023), pengurus Himpunan Peneliti Indonesia (Himpenindo) (2019–2021), anggota Himpunan Editor Berkala Ilmiah Indonesia (HEBII) (2019–2023), anggota Council of Asian Science Editors (CASE) (2020–2023), pengurus pusat Bidang Kejuruan Teknik Nuklir Persatuan Insinyur Indonesia (BKTN - PII) (2021–2024), dan pengurus pusat Perhimpunan Periset Indonesia (PPI) (2022–2024).
Memperoleh tanda penghargaan Satyalancana Karya Satya X Tahun dari Presiden Republik Indonesia (tahun 2007); Atom Indonesia Best Paper Awards dari BATAN (tahun 2014); Penghargaan Publikasi Ilmiah Internasional dari Lembaga Pengelola Dana Pendidikan (2016); Satyalancana Karya Satya XX Tahun dari Presiden Republik Indonesia (tahun 2017); Outstanding Reviewer dari jurnal Annals of Nuclear Energy (tahun 2017), Reliability Engineering and System Safety (tahun 2018), dan Fuzzy Sets and Systems (tahun 2018); serta Penghargaan ­Publikasi Ilmiah Internasional dari Kementerian Riset Teknologi dan Pendidikan Tinggi (tahun 2019).

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